230 detailed topics:
100 trading techniques, 100 option-chain analytics, and 30 metals/SHFE practice notes.
Each card expands with when / structure / Greeks / example / invalidation.
Education only. Options can lose more than expected when leverage, assignment, liquidity, gaps, or uncovered shorts are involved. Validate every structure with payoff, Greeks, margin, and settlement rules before trading.
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What concept is this?
Directional Structures
Express a price view while choosing how much convexity, decay, and capital exposure you want.
001–
010
#001
IntermediateMixed risk
Long ITM call stock replacement
Use a high-delta call instead of shares to reduce capital at risk.
Risk:
Watch liquidity, early assignment around dividends, and time decay.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Long high-delta ITM call as capital-efficient long futures/stock proxy; no short leg.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Long ITM call stock replacement” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Use a high-delta call instead of shares to reduce capital at risk.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Watch liquidity, early assignment around dividends, and time decay.
Use a high-delta put to express downside without borrowing stock.
Risk:
Risk is premium paid; spreads can widen in stressed markets.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Long high-delta ITM put as a short-delta proxy without borrowing the underlying.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Long ITM put synthetic short” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Use a high-delta put to express downside without borrowing stock.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Risk is premium paid; spreads can widen in stressed markets.
Buy a call and sell a higher strike to define cost and upside.
Risk:
Best when target is realistic before expiry; capped gains.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Long lower-strike call + short higher-strike call, same expiry.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU futures ~780: buy 780 call, sell 800 call same expiry. Max loss = net debit; max gain ≈ 20 − debit (in futures points terms, scaled by multiplier).
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Best when target is realistic before expiry; capped gains.
Buy a put and sell a lower strike to define downside exposure.
Risk:
Profit is capped and theta hurts if the move is slow.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Long higher-strike put + short lower-strike put, same expiry.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: buy 780 put, sell 760 put. Profits if futures grind/slide lower before expiry; capped at width − debit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Profit is capped and theta hurts if the move is slow.
Buy one call and sell more higher-strike calls for a cheap upside trade.
Risk:
Uncovered extra shorts can create large upside risk.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Long 1 call + short N higher calls (N>1).
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Ratio call spread” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy one call and sell more higher-strike calls for a cheap upside trade.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Uncovered extra shorts can create large upside risk.
Buy one put and sell more lower-strike puts for cheap downside exposure.
Risk:
Extra short puts can create large downside assignment risk.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Long 1 put + short N lower puts (N>1).
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Ratio put spread” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy one put and sell more lower-strike puts for cheap downside exposure.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Extra short puts can create large downside assignment risk.
Sell one lower call and buy more higher calls for convex upside.
Risk:
Can lose if price stalls near the long strikes.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Short lower call + long more higher-strike calls.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Call backspread” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell one lower call and buy more higher calls for convex upside.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Can lose if price stalls near the long strikes.
Sell one higher put and buy more lower puts for convex downside.
Risk:
Can lose if price settles around the long strikes.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Short higher put + long more lower-strike puts.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Put backspread” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell one higher put and buy more lower puts for convex downside.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Can lose if price settles around the long strikes.
Buy a call and sell a put at the same strike to mimic long shares.
Risk:
Margin and assignment risk can resemble leveraged stock.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Long call + short put, same strike.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Synthetic long stock” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy a call and sell a put at the same strike to mimic long shares.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Margin and assignment risk can resemble leveraged stock.
Sell a call and buy a put at the same strike to mimic short shares.
Risk:
Short-call risk is open-ended if not hedged.
When to use
You have a directional view on AU/AG futures and want a defined convexity vs capital tradeoff.
Structure
Short call + long put, same strike.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Synthetic short stock” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell a call and buy a put at the same strike to mimic short shares.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Short-call risk is open-ended if not hedged.
Sell option premium with explicit rules for assignment, drawdown, and volatility expansion.
011–
020
#011
BeginnerUndefined risk
Covered call overwrite
Sell calls against stock or futures to harvest call premium.
Risk:
Upside is capped and shares can be called away.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Long underlying/futures + short OTM call.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Long AU futures (or equivalent exposure) + sell 30Δ call. Cap upside at short strike + credit; plan roll if futures rip through.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Upside is capped and shares can be called away.
Sell puts only at prices where you can own the underlying.
Risk:
Losses can be stock-like in a sharp selloff.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Short put with cash reserved for assignment.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Sell AU 25–30Δ put only if you accept long futures/inventory at strike. If assigned, sell OTM calls until called away.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Losses can be stock-like in a sharp selloff.
Hold shares, sell an upside call, and sell a downside put.
Risk:
Adds downside inventory risk if the put is assigned.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Long underlying + short OTM call + short OTM put.
Greeks / risk shape
Long gamma, long vega, negative theta; delta near zero if ATM-centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Covered strangle” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Hold shares, sell an upside call, and sell a downside put.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Adds downside inventory risk if the put is assigned.
Cycle cash-secured puts and covered calls around assigned stock.
Risk:
Works poorly in persistent trends against your inventory.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Sell CSP; if assigned, sell covered calls until called away; repeat.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Sell AU 25–30Δ put only if you accept long futures/inventory at strike. If assigned, sell OTM calls until called away.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Works poorly in persistent trends against your inventory.
Use a long-dated call as stock proxy and sell shorter calls.
Risk:
Diagonal risk depends on skew, IV, and strike spacing.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Long underlying/futures + short OTM call.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Long AU futures (or equivalent exposure) + sell 30Δ call. Cap upside at short strike + credit; plan roll if futures rip through.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Diagonal risk depends on skew, IV, and strike spacing.
Risk:
Profit is capped on downside and upside short-stock risk remains.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Short underlying + short put against the short inventory.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Put overwrite on short stock” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell puts against short stock to collect premium.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Profit is capped on downside and upside short-stock risk remains.
Layer short puts across strikes or expiries to scale entries.
Risk:
Correlation rises in selloffs; plan maximum aggregate exposure.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Multiple short puts at stepped strikes and/or expiries; plan aggregate max loss.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Short put ladder” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Layer short puts across strikes or expiries to scale entries.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Correlation rises in selloffs; plan maximum aggregate exposure.
Sell calls by fixed delta, such as 20 to 30 delta.
Risk:
Delta alone misses earnings, skew, and realized volatility regime.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Long inventory + short calls selected by target delta (e.g. 20–30Δ).
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Systematic delta target overwrite” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell calls by fixed delta, such as 20 to 30 delta.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Delta alone misses earnings, skew, and realized volatility regime.
Sell defined-risk spreads when IV rank is elevated.
Risk:
High IV can become higher; position size must assume expansion.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Defined-risk short premium (spreads/condors) when IV rank is high.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “IV rank premium selling” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell defined-risk spreads when IV rank is elevated.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: High IV can become higher; position size must assume expansion.
Own stock, sell calls, and roll protective puts as insurance.
Risk:
Collar drag can be meaningful in quiet rising markets.
When to use
You want premium income and accept inventory or assignment risk with a written plan.
Structure
Long underlying + long put + short call.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Long AU exposure, buy 5% OTM put, sell 5% OTM call to fund. Defines a band for carry through an event.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Collar drag can be meaningful in quiet rising markets.
Trade probability and premium while capping losses before the order is opened.
021–
030
#021
BeginnerDefined risk
Bull put credit spread
Sell a put and buy a lower put to express neutral-to-bullish bias.
Risk:
Max loss occurs below the long put at expiry.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Short higher-strike put + long lower-strike put (credit), same expiry.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: sell 760 put, buy 740 put for credit. Keep if futures stay above 760; max loss = width − credit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Max loss occurs below the long put at expiry.
Sell a call and buy a higher call to express neutral-to-bearish bias.
Risk:
Gap risk can push spreads close to max loss quickly.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Short lower-strike call + long higher-strike call (credit), same expiry.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: sell 800 call, buy 820 call. Credit if you expect AU to stay under 800.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Gap risk can push spreads close to max loss quickly.
Sell an OTM put spread and OTM call spread around a range.
Risk:
Range breaks and IV expansion are the main threats.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Short OTM put spread + short OTM call spread around expected range.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: sell 760/740 put spread and 800/820 call spread. Profit if AU expires between short strikes; size by max loss not credit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Range breaks and IV expansion are the main threats.
Use tight wings for high frequency, small defined-risk range bets.
Risk:
Commissions and slippage can dominate expected edge.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Short OTM put spread + short OTM call spread around expected range.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: sell 760/740 put spread and 800/820 call spread. Profit if AU expires between short strikes; size by max loss not credit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Commissions and slippage can dominate expected edge.
Use wider protection to collect more credit and reduce gamma.
Risk:
Requires larger margin and still has tail loss.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Short OTM put spread + short OTM call spread around expected range.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: sell 760/740 put spread and 800/820 call spread. Profit if AU expires between short strikes; size by max loss not credit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Requires larger margin and still has tail loss.
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Short ATM straddle + long OTM call and put wings.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Iron butterfly” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell ATM straddle and buy protective wings.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Strong theta but high gamma near the body.
Shift one wing wider so the structure opens for credit.
Risk:
The wide side carries larger defined loss.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Butterfly/condor with asymmetric wing width for credit bias.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Broken-wing butterfly credit” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Shift one wing wider so the structure opens for credit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: The wide side carries larger defined loss.
Size put and call sides differently based on directional skew.
Risk:
A biased range trade can lose faster on the larger side.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Iron condor with unequal put/call widths or sizes for skew bias.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Unbalanced condor” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Size put and call sides differently based on directional skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: A biased range trade can lose faster on the larger side.
Add credit spreads at staggered strikes instead of one entry.
Risk:
Stacked spreads can hide total notional risk.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Staggered credit spreads at multiple strikes rather than one entry.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Credit spread ladder” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Add credit spreads at staggered strikes instead of one entry.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Stacked spreads can hide total notional risk.
Adjust or close when short strike delta crosses a rule threshold.
Risk:
Frequent adjustments can turn theta edge into transaction cost.
When to use
You are neutral-to-mildly directional and prefer capped max loss before entry.
Structure
Credit spread with exit/adjust rules when short-strike delta hits a threshold.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Delta-managed credit spread” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Adjust or close when short strike delta crosses a rule threshold.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Frequent adjustments can turn theta edge into transaction cost.
Target implied volatility, realized volatility, skew, and event repricing rather than simple direction.
031–
040
#031
BeginnerMixed risk
Long straddle
Buy ATM call and put for a large move in either direction.
Risk:
Needs realized move to beat IV and theta.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Long ATM call + long ATM put, same strike and expiry.
Greeks / risk shape
Long gamma, long vega, negative theta; delta near zero if ATM-centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
Buy AU ATM straddle into a macro print if implied move looks cheap vs your scenario set; need a fast realized move or IV pop.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Needs realized move to beat IV and theta.
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Long OTM call + long OTM put, same expiry.
Greeks / risk shape
Long gamma, long vega, negative theta; delta near zero if ATM-centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Long strangle” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy OTM call and put for cheaper convex exposure.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Requires a larger move than a straddle.
Sell ATM call and put when realized volatility may stay contained.
Risk:
Unlimited or very large loss risk without hedges.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Short ATM call + short ATM put.
Greeks / risk shape
Short gamma, short vega, positive theta; delta near zero at entry if centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
Sell AU ATM call+put when IV is rich vs your realized view; prefer defined wings (iron fly) unless margin and risk policy allow naked.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Unlimited or very large loss risk without hedges.
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Short OTM call + short OTM put.
Greeks / risk shape
Short gamma, short vega, positive theta; delta near zero at entry if centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Short strangle” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell OTM call and put around expected range.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Tail losses can overwhelm many small wins.
Sell near-term ATM options and buy later-term ATM options.
Risk:
Sensitive to term structure and near-term pin risk.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Calendar straddle: multi-leg or process rule—define legs, expiry, and max loss before entry.
Greeks / risk shape
Long gamma, long vega, negative theta; delta near zero if ATM-centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
Buy AU ATM straddle into a macro print if implied move looks cheap vs your scenario set; need a fast realized move or IV pop.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Sensitive to term structure and near-term pin risk.
Buy longer-dated wings and sell shorter-dated opposite wings.
Risk:
Complex exposure changes as spot and IV move.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Longer-dated long wings + shorter-dated short opposite wings across strikes.
Greeks / risk shape
Long gamma, long vega, negative theta; delta near zero if ATM-centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Diagonal strangle” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy longer-dated wings and sell shorter-dated opposite wings.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Complex exposure changes as spot and IV move.
Buy options before expected volatility demand increases.
Risk:
IV can fail to rise or underlying can drift against delta.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Long options or debit structures before expected IV demand rise.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Pre-event IV run-up trade” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy options before expected volatility demand increases.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: IV can fail to rise or underlying can drift against delta.
Sell defined-risk premium after an event when IV remains rich.
Risk:
Aftershocks can keep realized volatility high.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Defined-risk short premium after event when IV remains elevated.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Post-event IV crush sale” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell defined-risk premium after an event when IV remains rich.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Aftershocks can keep realized volatility high.
Buy options and hedge delta as spot moves to monetize realized volatility.
Risk:
Needs enough realized movement to beat theta and costs.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Long options + dynamic delta hedge as spot moves.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Near expiry, if gamma peak clusters at 780 with huge OI, reduce short-gamma size; small futures ticks force larger hedge deltas.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Needs enough realized movement to beat theta and costs.
Trade option structures around changes in implied volatility.
Risk:
Vega estimates shift with spot, time, and skew.
When to use
Your edge is in implied vs realized vol, event IV, or move size—not pure direction.
Structure
Structures positioned for IV changes; delta often hedged or neutralized.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Vega scalping” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Trade option structures around changes in implied volatility.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Vega estimates shift with spot, time, and skew.
Use term structure and different decay speeds across expirations.
041–
050
#041
AdvancedDefined risk
Call calendar spread
Sell a near call and buy a later call at the same strike.
Risk:
Best near the strike; directional moves can hurt.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Short near-term call + long later-term call, same strike.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU: sell front-week/month 780 call, buy next listed 780 call when front IV > back IV and you expect pin/quiet near 780.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Best near the strike; directional moves can hurt.
Sell a near put and buy a later put at the same strike.
Risk:
Short-term assignment and skew changes matter.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Short near-term put + long later-term put, same strike.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU: sell front-week/month 780 call, buy next listed 780 call when front IV > back IV and you expect pin/quiet near 780.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Short-term assignment and skew changes matter.
Run call and put calendars around a projected range.
Risk:
Can underperform if price pins the middle or breaks out.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Call calendar + put calendar around a projected range.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU: sell front-week/month 780 call, buy next listed 780 call when front IV > back IV and you expect pin/quiet near 780.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Can underperform if price pins the middle or breaks out.
Buy longer call and sell shorter higher-strike call.
Risk:
Blends direction, decay, and skew exposure.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Long longer-dated call + short nearer higher-strike call.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Diagonal call spread” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy longer call and sell shorter higher-strike call.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Blends direction, decay, and skew exposure.
Risk:
Good for bearish carry but needs roll discipline.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Long longer-dated put + short nearer lower-strike put.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Diagonal put spread” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy longer put and sell shorter lower-strike put.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Good for bearish carry but needs roll discipline.
Place calendars where the strike may become ATM as price trends.
Risk:
Thesis fails if timing or target is wrong.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Calendars placed where strike may become ATM as price trends.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU: sell front-week/month 780 call, buy next listed 780 call when front IV > back IV and you expect pin/quiet near 780.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Thesis fails if timing or target is wrong.
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Short front expiry vs longer-dated hedge (calendar-like).
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Front-month theta harvest” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell front expiry against longer-dated hedges.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Front expiry gamma can dominate the hedge.
Exploit term-structure kinks between listed cycles.
Risk:
Liquidity differences can erase theoretical edge.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Calendar between quarterly and monthly listed cycles.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU: sell front-week/month 780 call, buy next listed 780 call when front IV > back IV and you expect pin/quiet near 780.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Liquidity differences can erase theoretical edge.
Sell event-heavy expiry or buy the expiry that owns the event, depending on IV.
Risk:
Event placement and settlement details must be exact.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Calendar with short or long leg placed on the event expiry intentionally.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU: sell front-week/month 780 call, buy next listed 780 call when front IV > back IV and you expect pin/quiet near 780.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Event placement and settlement details must be exact.
Buy two expiries and sell the middle expiry to trade term structure curvature.
Risk:
Model marks can be fragile and exits may be illiquid.
When to use
Term structure is mispriced or you want to harvest front-month decay vs back-month vega.
Structure
Time fly: multi-leg or process rule—define legs, expiry, and max loss before entry.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Time fly” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy two expiries and sell the middle expiry to trade term structure curvature.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Model marks can be fragile and exits may be illiquid.
Use differences across strikes, expiries, and implied distributions.
051–
060
#051
AdvancedMixed risk
Risk reversal
Buy a call and sell a put, or the reverse, to express directional skew.
Risk:
Short wing can carry large assignment risk.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Long call wing + short put wing (or reverse), often delta-ish financed.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Short wing can carry large assignment risk.
Own shares, buy a put, and sell a call to fund protection.
Risk:
Protection is limited and upside is capped.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Long underlying + long put + short call.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Long AU exposure, buy 5% OTM put, sell 5% OTM call to fund. Defines a band for carry through an event.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Protection is limited and upside is capped.
Combine a debit spread with a short option to reduce cost.
Risk:
The funding short option creates tail exposure.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Debit call or put spread + short further option to fund (asymmetric).
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: The funding short option creates tail exposure.
Sell an OTM put and a call credit spread for no upside risk if priced right.
Risk:
Downside risk remains through the short put.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Short put + short call credit spread (call side defined).
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Downside risk remains through the short put.
Sell an OTM call and a put credit spread for downside-defined exposure.
Risk:
Upside risk remains through the short call.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Short put + short call credit spread (call side defined).
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Upside risk remains through the short call.
Sell rich downside skew using defined-risk put spreads.
Risk:
Crash risk is exactly when skew looked richest.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Defined-risk short put spreads when downside skew is rich.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Crash risk is exactly when skew looked richest.
Sell rich upside calls in crowded momentum names with hedges.
Risk:
Short squeezes can be violent.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Defined-risk short call spreads / overwrites when upside skew is rich.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Short squeezes can be violent.
Buy cheap wing and sell expensive wing when skew looks stretched.
Risk:
Surface can steepen further in stress.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Long cheap wing / short rich wing when smile slope looks stretched.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Surface can steepen further in stress.
Own downside wing versus short nearer strike when crash demand seems underpriced.
Risk:
Bleeds if nothing happens.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Long downside wing vs short nearer strike when crash skew seems cheap.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Bleeds if nothing happens.
Risk:
Requires clean marks and comparable liquidity.
When to use
Wings or RR look rich/cheap versus history and your distribution view.
Structure
Skew position in one expiry vs another (relative RR/BF).
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Requires clean marks and comparable liquidity.
Design payoffs for rare large moves while controlling bleed.
061–
070
#061
BeginnerDefined risk
Protective put
Buy puts against stock or futures to cap downside.
Risk:
Insurance cost can drag long-run returns.
When to use
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Long underlying + long put.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Protective put” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy puts against stock or futures to cap downside.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Insurance cost can drag long-run returns.
Buy a put and sell a lower put to reduce hedge cost.
Risk:
Protection stops below the short strike.
When to use
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Long put + short further OTM put against inventory.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Put spread hedge” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy a put and sell a lower put to reduce hedge cost.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Protection stops below the short strike.
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Long underlying + long put + short call.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Long AU exposure, buy 5% OTM put, sell 5% OTM call to fund. Defines a band for carry through an event.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Cost reduction comes from giving up upside.
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Stack of put spreads at stepped downside zones.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Crash put ladder” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Layer put spreads at multiple downside zones.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: May not pay until the move is large enough.
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Short higher put + long more lower-strike puts.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Ratio put backspread hedge” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell one near put and buy multiple lower puts.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Can lose in a moderate selloff.
Own far OTM calls against short or short-vol books.
Risk:
Wings can expire worthless repeatedly.
When to use
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Long far OTM calls against short or short-vol inventory.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Call wing crash hedge for shorts” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Own far OTM calls against short or short-vol books.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Wings can expire worthless repeatedly.
Buy longer tail options and sell shorter options to finance.
Risk:
Short leg can become dangerous during fast moves.
When to use
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Long longer-dated tails financed by short nearer options.
Greeks / risk shape
Typically long back-month vega, short front gamma; net delta depends on strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU: sell front-week/month 780 call, buy next listed 780 call when front IV > back IV and you expect pin/quiet near 780.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Short leg can become dangerous during fast moves.
Risk:
Rolling can lock in losses if rules are too tight.
When to use
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Long underlying + long put.
Greeks / risk shape
Often long premium or long wing convexity: pay theta, own gamma/vega where designed.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Dynamic protective put roll” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Roll hedge strikes by delta or drawdown rules.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Rolling can lock in losses if rules are too tight.
Own low-cost convexity across several correlated underlyings.
Risk:
Correlation and liquidity change during crises.
When to use
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Basket of low-cost convex options across related underlyings.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Disaster hedge basket” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Own low-cost convexity across several correlated underlyings.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Correlation and liquidity change during crises.
Use options on volatility products or index options as portfolio hedge.
Risk:
Vol products have unique settlement and term-structure risks.
When to use
You need crash/spike insurance or cheap convexity overlays for a book.
Structure
Index or vol-product options overlaid on a portfolio.
Greeks / risk shape
Compute net delta, gamma, vega, and theta at entry; re-check after a 1% futures move.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Volatility hedge overlay” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Use options on volatility products or index options as portfolio hedge.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Vol products have unique settlement and term-structure risks.
Treat positions as exposures to delta, gamma, theta, vega, and rho that change over time.
071–
080
#071
AdvancedProcess
Delta-neutral entry
Open multi-leg trades near zero delta to isolate volatility or time.
Risk:
Delta will drift as spot and IV move.
When to use
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Delta-neutral entry” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Open multi-leg trades near zero delta to isolate volatility or time.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Delta will drift as spot and IV move.
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Delta band rebalancing” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Hedge only when delta leaves a preset band.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Wide bands increase directional risk; tight bands increase cost.
Limit total gamma so one move cannot force bad hedges.
Risk:
Gamma grows near expiry and near ATM strikes.
When to use
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Near expiry, if gamma peak clusters at 780 with huge OI, reduce short-gamma size; small futures ticks force larger hedge deltas.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Gamma grows near expiry and near ATM strikes.
Compare daily theta to maximum loss before selling premium.
Risk:
High theta can simply mean high embedded risk.
When to use
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Theta-to-risk filter” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Compare daily theta to maximum loss before selling premium.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: High theta can simply mean high embedded risk.
Risk:
Term shocks can hit several buckets together.
When to use
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Vega limit per expiry” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Cap vega exposure by expiration bucket.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Term shocks can hit several buckets together.
Account for delta decay as time passes, especially near expiry.
Risk:
Charm estimates change around dividends and events.
When to use
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Charm-aware hedging” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Account for delta decay as time passes, especially near expiry.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Charm estimates change around dividends and events.
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
If AU 25Δ RR is deeply negative (puts rich), prefer put credit spreads with wings over naked short puts when harvesting skew.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Vanna can flip expected hedge behavior.
Risk:
Usually expensive and decays when calm persists.
When to use
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Vomma convexity trade” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Own options that gain vega as IV rises.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Usually expensive and decays when calm persists.
Close or adjust short ATM options near expiration.
Risk:
Tiny settlement moves can cause unwanted assignment.
When to use
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Pin-risk avoidance” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Close or adjust short ATM options near expiration.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Tiny settlement moves can cause unwanted assignment.
You already hold risk and need rules for delta, gamma, vega, and pin.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Meta-control of delta/gamma/vega/theta rather than a fixed structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Greek stress grid” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Stress spot, IV, and time together before entering.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Single-Greek analysis misses combined path risk.
Predefine changes so losing trades do not become improvised risk expansions.
081–
090
#081
AdvancedProcess
Roll out for duration
Move a short option to a later expiry for credit and time.
Risk:
Adds time in risk and can compound losses.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Roll out for duration” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Move a short option to a later expiry for credit and time.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Adds time in risk and can compound losses.
Move short calls higher after an underlying rallies.
Risk:
May realize losses and reduce future credit.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Roll up calls” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Move short calls higher after an underlying rallies.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: May realize losses and reduce future credit.
Risk:
Can increase duration and downside exposure.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Roll down puts” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Move short puts lower after a selloff.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Can increase duration and downside exposure.
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Short OTM put spread + short OTM call spread around expected range.
Greeks / risk shape
Often short premium: positive theta, short vega; delta biased by direction of shorts.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: sell 760/740 put spread and 800/820 call spread. Profit if AU expires between short strikes; size by max loss not credit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: New side adds fresh risk, not free money.
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Short OTM put spread + short OTM call spread around expected range.
Greeks / risk shape
Short gamma, short vega, positive theta; delta near zero at entry if centered.
Example (AU/AG context)
AU ~780: sell 760/740 put spread and 800/820 call spread. Profit if AU expires between short strikes; size by max loss not credit.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Protection may be expensive after IV rises.
Add wings around a challenged short strike to reshape payoff.
Risk:
Can reduce loss but narrows profit zone.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Butterfly repair” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Add wings around a challenged short strike to reshape payoff.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Can reduce loss but narrows profit zone.
Use shares or futures to neutralize assigned option exposure.
Risk:
Hedge can create overnight or borrow risk.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Stock hedge assignment” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Use shares or futures to neutralize assigned option exposure.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Hedge can create overnight or borrow risk.
Close part of a winner at a fixed profit threshold.
Risk:
Reduces max profit but lowers reversal risk.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Partial profit scaling” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Close part of a winner at a fixed profit threshold.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Reduces max profit but lowers reversal risk.
Risk:
Greeks can jump through thresholds in fast markets.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Stop by Greek threshold” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Exit when delta, gamma, or vega exceeds plan.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Greeks can jump through thresholds in fast markets.
Accept the defined loss instead of extending a failed thesis.
Risk:
Requires discipline before expiration pressure builds.
When to use
A live trade is challenged and you need precommitted repair rules.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “No-roll max-loss rule” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Accept the defined loss instead of extending a failed thesis.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Requires discipline before expiration pressure builds.
Improve trade selection, sizing, and fills before strategy names matter.
091–
100
#091
IntermediateProcess
Liquidity-first filter
Trade tight spreads, open interest, and reliable volume first.
Risk:
Illiquid options make theoretical edge hard to realize.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Liquidity-first filter” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Trade tight spreads, open interest, and reliable volume first.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Illiquid options make theoretical edge hard to realize.
Risk:
Urgent market orders can pay too much spread.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Mid-price limit orders” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Start near mid and work orders patiently.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Urgent market orders can pay too much spread.
Use complex orders when legging could create naked exposure.
Risk:
Complex fills can still be partial or slow.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Legging risk control” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Use complex orders when legging could create naked exposure.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Complex fills can still be partial or slow.
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Expected move mapping” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Compare strikes to market-implied expected move.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Expected move is not a boundary.
Sell defined-risk premium when implied move seems overstated.
Risk:
Single-name earnings gaps can exceed history.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Earnings move fade” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Sell defined-risk premium when implied move seems overstated.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Single-name earnings gaps can exceed history.
Risk:
Even correct direction can lose if IV was too high.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Earnings convexity buy” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Buy options when implied move seems understated.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Even correct direction can lose if IV was too high.
Risk:
Diversified tickers can become one trade in a shock.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Correlation-aware sizing” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Treat similar underlyings as one risk cluster.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Diversified tickers can become one trade in a shock.
Size positions by stress loss, not credit received.
Risk:
Margin can rise when markets move against you.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Portfolio margin stress” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Size positions by stress loss, not credit received.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Margin can rise when markets move against you.
Know exercise style, settlement, and tax treatment before trading.
Risk:
Index, ETF, futures, and equity options differ.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Tax-lot and settlement review” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Know exercise style, settlement, and tax treatment before trading.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Index, ETF, futures, and equity options differ.
Track setup, Greeks, entry IV, exit reason, and slippage.
Risk:
Without records, strategy selection becomes anecdotal.
When to use
Before strategy names: liquidity, sizing, fills, and correlation dominate.
Structure
Process rule applied to any multi-leg book: measure → threshold → action → journal.
Greeks / risk shape
Greeks change with the adjustment; re-run stress after every repair.
Example (AU/AG context)
Apply “Trade journal edge review” on AU or AG only after checking liquidity (tight bid/ask, real volume/OI). Write entry IV, net delta, max loss, and exit rule before sending the order. Context: Track setup, Greeks, entry IV, exit reason, and slippage.
Invalidation
Exit or stop adding when the thesis fails, max loss hits, or Greeks breach plan—do not “hope-roll” without a new edge. Primary risk: Without records, strategy selection becomes anecdotal.
Read price, volatility, positioning, and Greeks together. A single chart is context, not a trade.
Best workflow
Start with expected move and ATM IV, then check smile, term structure, OI walls, max pain, and history.
Main caveat
OI-weighted Greeks are proxies. Exchange OI does not reveal dealer/customer direction.
Dashboard Reading
Turn the option-chain top row into a fast market read before looking at individual strikes.
101–110
#101
BeginnerProcess
Future price anchor
Start from the future price, not spot, because the chain Greeks and moneyness are priced from the futures contract.
Caveat:
If the future is stale, every derived chart inherits that error.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Start from the future price, not spot, because the chain Greeks and moneyness are priced from the futures contract. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Future price anchor” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: If the future is stale, every derived chart inherits that error.
Read every metric through time remaining: 16 days and 160 days imply very different gamma, theta, and skew behavior.
Caveat:
Near-expiry metrics can change violently after small futures moves.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Read every metric through time remaining: 16 days and 160 days imply very different gamma, theta, and skew behavior. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Days-to-expiry context” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Near-expiry metrics can change violently after small futures moves.
Use ATM IV as the cleanest reference for the contract volatility level.
Caveat:
ATM IV is still only as reliable as the traded ATM option marks.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Use ATM IV as the cleanest reference for the contract volatility level. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “ATM IV baseline” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: ATM IV is still only as reliable as the traded ATM option marks.
The ATM call plus ATM put estimates the option market price of a move by expiry.
Caveat:
It is not a forecast; it is a premium-implied break-even width.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
The ATM call plus ATM put estimates the option market price of a move by expiry. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “ATM straddle price” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: It is not a forecast; it is a premium-implied break-even width.
Divide the ATM straddle by the future to compare expected move across contracts and products.
Caveat:
The number ignores path, jumps, and skew.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Divide the ATM straddle by the future to compare expected move across contracts and products. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Expected move percent” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: The number ignores path, jumps, and skew.
Put/call volume shows where today activity is concentrated.
Caveat:
Volume can be opening, closing, hedging, or spread legs.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Put/call volume shows where today activity is concentrated. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Volume P/C ratio” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Volume can be opening, closing, hedging, or spread legs.
Put/call open interest shows the inventory footprint from prior sessions.
Caveat:
OI updates lag and does not reveal buyer versus seller.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Put/call open interest shows the inventory footprint from prior sessions. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “OI P/C ratio” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: OI updates lag and does not reveal buyer versus seller.
Compare the chosen contract with adjacent expiries before trading a single signal.
Caveat:
One contract can be distorted by a local liquidity pocket.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Compare the chosen contract with adjacent expiries before trading a single signal. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Contract selection discipline” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: One contract can be distorted by a local liquidity pocket.
The displayed rate feeds the model used for IV and Greeks.
Caveat:
Small model assumptions matter more for longer expiries.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
The displayed rate feeds the model used for IV and Greeks. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Rate and carry awareness” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Small model assumptions matter more for longer expiries.
Treat the dashboard as useful when several tiles agree, not when one tile flashes a tempting number.
Caveat:
Single-metric trades are fragile.
When to use
First 30 seconds on the chain: set context before drilling into strikes.
How to read
Treat the dashboard as useful when several tiles agree, not when one tile flashes a tempting number. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Tiles first → expected move → P/C → then open smile/term.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Tile conflict check” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Single-metric trades are fragile.
Use the smile chart to understand how the market prices wings versus at-the-money risk.
111–120
#111
IntermediateProcess
Smile level
The vertical height of the smile tells you the volatility premium across strikes.
Caveat:
Absolute IV should be compared with realized volatility and history.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
The vertical height of the smile tells you the volatility premium across strikes. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Smile level” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Absolute IV should be compared with realized volatility and history.
A higher put wing than call wing means downside protection is richer than upside calls.
Caveat:
For commodities, skew can reflect physical hedging flows, not just fear.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
A higher put wing than call wing means downside protection is richer than upside calls. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Smile slope” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: For commodities, skew can reflect physical hedging flows, not just fear.
High call IV at far strikes can show upside squeeze demand or stale marks.
Caveat:
Illiquid far calls can print misleading IV.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
High call IV at far strikes can show upside squeeze demand or stale marks. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Call wing richness” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Illiquid far calls can print misleading IV.
High put IV at far strikes can show crash insurance demand or cheap-option speculation.
Caveat:
Tiny prices can generate exaggerated IV.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
High put IV at far strikes can show crash insurance demand or cheap-option speculation. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Put wing richness” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Tiny prices can generate exaggerated IV.
A kink near the future can signal concentrated hedging or bad quotes.
Caveat:
Do not overread a single bad strike.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
A kink near the future can signal concentrated hedging or bad quotes. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “ATM smile kink” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Do not overread a single bad strike.
Calls and puts near the same moneyness should usually tell a coherent volatility story.
Caveat:
Wide markets and last-trade IV can break this visual symmetry.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
Calls and puts near the same moneyness should usually tell a coherent volatility story. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Call-put IV parity check” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Wide markets and last-trade IV can break this visual symmetry.
Use the smile to decide whether to buy debit spreads, sell credit spreads, or avoid overpriced wings.
Caveat:
Cheap-looking wings can stay cheap for good reasons.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
Use the smile to decide whether to buy debit spreads, sell credit spreads, or avoid overpriced wings. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Wing selection” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Cheap-looking wings can stay cheap for good reasons.
Read between strikes rather than forcing exact 25D or ATM levels when strikes are coarse.
Caveat:
Interpolation is an estimate, not executable liquidity.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
Read between strikes rather than forcing exact 25D or ATM levels when strikes are coarse. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Strike interpolation” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Interpolation is an estimate, not executable liquidity.
Ignore isolated dots that come from stale last trades or crossed markets.
Caveat:
Outliers are often data quality, not opportunity.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
Ignore isolated dots that come from stale last trades or crossed markets. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Smile outlier filtering” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Outliers are often data quality, not opportunity.
Compare today smile shape with term skew and history before calling it rich or cheap.
Caveat:
One snapshot cannot define a regime.
When to use
You are choosing strikes/wings and need IV shape, not only ATM level.
How to read
Compare today smile shape with term skew and history before calling it rich or cheap. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
ATM level → put wing vs call wing → filter outliers → pick strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Smile regime comparison” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: One snapshot cannot define a regime.
Use expiry-by-expiry ATM IV to separate short-term event premium from longer-term volatility expectations.
121–130
#121
IntermediateProcess
Contango term structure
Longer expiries above front IV can mean steady uncertainty or deferred event risk.
Caveat:
Longer options may simply be less liquid.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
Longer expiries above front IV can mean steady uncertainty or deferred event risk. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Contango term structure” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Longer options may simply be less liquid.
Front IV above back IV often means near-term stress or an event window.
Caveat:
Backwardation can disappear quickly after the event passes.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
Front IV above back IV often means near-term stress or an event window. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Backwardation term structure” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Backwardation can disappear quickly after the event passes.
Very low front IV says the market expects quiet movement before expiry.
Caveat:
Cheap front IV can be a trap before scheduled news.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
Very low front IV says the market expects quiet movement before expiry. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Front expiry compression” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Cheap front IV can be a trap before scheduled news.
Back-month IV gives a slower-moving reference for fair volatility.
Caveat:
Back IV can be stale if trading volume is thin.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
Back-month IV gives a slower-moving reference for fair volatility. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Back expiry anchor” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Back IV can be stale if trading volume is thin.
Steep term differences can support calendars or diagonals.
Caveat:
Calendar P/L depends on spot ending near the right strike.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
Steep term differences can support calendars or diagonals. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Calendar trade read” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Calendar P/L depends on spot ending near the right strike.
A single expiry with high IV can identify where event risk is concentrated.
Caveat:
Confirm the actual event date before trading it.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
A single expiry with high IV can identify where event risk is concentrated. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Event hump” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Confirm the actual event date before trading it.
When a contract rolls down the curve, its IV may drift toward the next lower point.
Caveat:
Spot moves and skew shifts can dominate roll-down.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
When a contract rolls down the curve, its IV may drift toward the next lower point. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Term roll-down” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Spot moves and skew shifts can dominate roll-down.
Compare AU and AG term shapes to see whether the move is product-specific or market-wide.
Caveat:
Different products have different liquidity and seasonality.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
Compare AU and AG term shapes to see whether the move is product-specific or market-wide. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Cross-contract comparison” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Different products have different liquidity and seasonality.
If one expiry looks wrong, inspect the chain and OI before accepting the chart.
Caveat:
Bad marks can create fake humps.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
If one expiry looks wrong, inspect the chain and OI before accepting the chart. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Term-structure sanity check” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Bad marks can create fake humps.
Sell-vol structures need enough front IV premium to compensate gamma risk.
Caveat:
Carry disappears when realized volatility jumps.
When to use
You compare expiries for calendars, event placement, or vol carry.
How to read
Sell-vol structures need enough front IV premium to compensate gamma risk. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Front vs back ATM IV → event humps → calendar candidacy.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Vol carry filter” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Carry disappears when realized volatility jumps.
Use max pain as an open-interest payout map, not as a magical price target.
131–140
#131
BeginnerProcess
Max pain definition
Max pain is the settlement strike where total option holder intrinsic payout is lowest.
Caveat:
It assumes all OI survives to expiry.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
Max pain is the settlement strike where total option holder intrinsic payout is lowest. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Max pain definition” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: It assumes all OI survives to expiry.
A steep curve means expiry payout changes quickly as settlement moves.
Caveat:
Steepness can be dominated by one crowded strike.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
A steep curve means expiry payout changes quickly as settlement moves. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Payout curve shape” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Steepness can be dominated by one crowded strike.
A flat valley means several nearby strikes have similar payout pressure.
Caveat:
Do not overfit the exact minimum strike.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
A flat valley means several nearby strikes have similar payout pressure. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Flat payout zone” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Do not overfit the exact minimum strike.
Compare max pain to the current future to see whether the OI center is above or below market.
Caveat:
Price does not have to move toward max pain.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
Compare max pain to the current future to see whether the OI center is above or below market. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Distance from future” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Price does not have to move toward max pain.
Near expiry, large OI clusters can affect hedging and pinning behavior.
Caveat:
Pinning is conditional, not guaranteed.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
Near expiry, large OI clusters can affect hedging and pinning behavior. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Expiry magnet idea” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Pinning is conditional, not guaranteed.
Recalculate after OI updates to see whether the payout minimum migrates.
Caveat:
Intraday OI may lag until exchange updates.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
Recalculate after OI updates to see whether the payout minimum migrates. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Max pain drift” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Intraday OI may lag until exchange updates.
If max pain comes from old OI but current volume is elsewhere, today flow may matter more.
Caveat:
Volume can be closing old positions.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
If max pain comes from old OI but current volume is elsewhere, today flow may matter more. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Pain versus volume” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Volume can be closing old positions.
Look at how payout changes if settlement jumps one or two strike steps.
Caveat:
A small pain difference is not a strong signal.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
Look at how payout changes if settlement jumps one or two strike steps. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Pain curve stress” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: A small pain difference is not a strong signal.
Max pain is more interesting when it lines up with gamma peak or OI walls.
Caveat:
Multiple indicators can still share the same flawed OI input.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
Max pain is more interesting when it lines up with gamma peak or OI walls. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Pain and gamma overlap” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Multiple indicators can still share the same flawed OI input.
Use max pain to frame expiry risk, not to justify naked short options.
Caveat:
Sharp moves into expiry can overwhelm pinning assumptions.
When to use
Near expiry, you want OI payout geography—not a price prophecy.
How to read
Use max pain to frame expiry risk, not to justify naked short options. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pain strike vs future → curve steepness → only then near-expiry pin talk.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Pain trade caution” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Sharp moves into expiry can overwhelm pinning assumptions.
Use strike distribution to locate crowding, fresh activity, and possible support or resistance zones.
141–150
#141
BeginnerProcess
Call wall
The call wall is the strike with the largest call open interest.
Caveat:
It may be long calls, short calls, spreads, or hedges.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
The call wall is the strike with the largest call open interest. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Call wall” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: It may be long calls, short calls, spreads, or hedges.
The put wall is the strike with the largest put open interest.
Caveat:
It is not automatically support.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
The put wall is the strike with the largest put open interest. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Put wall” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: It is not automatically support.
A cluster of adjacent high-OI strikes is more meaningful than one isolated strike.
Caveat:
Spreads can create artificial shelves.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
A cluster of adjacent high-OI strikes is more meaningful than one isolated strike. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “OI shelf” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Spreads can create artificial shelves.
High volume with low OI can signal new trading that may update OI tomorrow.
Caveat:
It can also be day trading that closes before settlement.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
High volume with low OI can signal new trading that may update OI tomorrow. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Fresh volume spike” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: It can also be day trading that closes before settlement.
The chart uses opacity to show where current-session volume is active versus dormant OI.
Caveat:
High volume does not show trade direction.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
The chart uses opacity to show where current-session volume is active versus dormant OI. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Volume opacity” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: High volume does not show trade direction.
Large call OI above the market can cap, accelerate, or do nothing depending on dealer positioning.
Caveat:
Without trade direction, this is a map, not a signal.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
Large call OI above the market can cap, accelerate, or do nothing depending on dealer positioning. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Call-heavy upside” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Without trade direction, this is a map, not a signal.
Large put OI below market marks crash insurance or structured positioning zones.
Caveat:
Protective put demand can coexist with bullish holders.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
Large put OI below market marks crash insurance or structured positioning zones. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Put-heavy downside” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Protective put demand can coexist with bullish holders.
Repeated OI across many strikes can indicate spread structures.
Caveat:
Single-leg interpretation will be wrong for spreads.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
Repeated OI across many strikes can indicate spread structures. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Strike laddering” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Single-leg interpretation will be wrong for spreads.
High OI and volume usually mean tighter markets and better exits.
Caveat:
Some high-OI strikes still trade with wide bid/ask spreads.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
High OI and volume usually mean tighter markets and better exits. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Liquidity target” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Some high-OI strikes still trade with wide bid/ask spreads.
Treat OI as previous-session inventory until the exchange refreshes it.
Caveat:
Intraday OI inference from volume is uncertain.
When to use
You map crowding, walls, and fresh activity by strike.
How to read
Treat OI as previous-session inventory until the exchange refreshes it. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Walls → shelves → volume opacity → liquidity for your strikes.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “OI update lag” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Intraday OI inference from volume is uncertain.
Use OI-weighted Greeks as a risk map while respecting that the true dealer book is unknown.
151–160
#151
AdvancedProcess
Net delta proxy
OI-weighted delta estimates where listed option inventory has directional sensitivity.
Caveat:
It does not reveal who is long or short.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
OI-weighted delta estimates where listed option inventory has directional sensitivity. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Net delta proxy” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: It does not reveal who is long or short.
OI-weighted absolute gamma marks strikes where hedging sensitivity may be largest.
Caveat:
Gross gamma ignores sign and position ownership.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
OI-weighted absolute gamma marks strikes where hedging sensitivity may be largest. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Gross gamma proxy” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Gross gamma ignores sign and position ownership.
The gamma peak strike is where small futures moves can cause the largest model delta change.
Caveat:
Real hedging depends on dealer inventory.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
The gamma peak strike is where small futures moves can cause the largest model delta change. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Gamma peak” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Real hedging depends on dealer inventory.
Positive net delta bars mean call delta dominates put delta at that strike.
Caveat:
A market maker short those calls would have opposite hedge pressure.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
Positive net delta bars mean call delta dominates put delta at that strike. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Positive delta bars” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: A market maker short those calls would have opposite hedge pressure.
Caveat:
The sign is inventory math, not guaranteed market flow.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
Negative net delta bars mean put delta dominates. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Negative delta bars” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: The sign is inventory math, not guaranteed market flow.
Gamma usually concentrates near ATM as expiry approaches.
Caveat:
Far-wing OI can still matter if size is huge.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
Gamma usually concentrates near ATM as expiry approaches. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Gamma near ATM” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Far-wing OI can still matter if size is huge.
A rapid drop in gross gamma across strikes can mark a zone where hedging sensitivity changes.
Caveat:
Cliffs move as the future moves.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
A rapid drop in gross gamma across strikes can mark a zone where hedging sensitivity changes. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Gamma cliff” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Cliffs move as the future moves.
High gamma zones often come with high theta decay.
Caveat:
Selling theta near high gamma can be dangerous.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
High gamma zones often come with high theta decay. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Theta-gamma tradeoff” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Selling theta near high gamma can be dangerous.
Use Greek proxy with OI walls, volume, and smile before forming a view.
Caveat:
The proxy alone is not enough.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
Use Greek proxy with OI walls, volume, and smile before forming a view. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Proxy confirmation” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: The proxy alone is not enough.
Label every inference from OI-weighted Greeks as conditional.
Caveat:
Only broker/dealer position data can confirm true sign.
When to use
You need a risk map of where hedging sensitivity may concentrate.
How to read
Label every inference from OI-weighted Greeks as conditional. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Gamma peak → net delta bars → humble about dealer sign.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Dealer-flow humility” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Only broker/dealer position data can confirm true sign.
Use 25-delta risk reversal and butterfly to track directional demand and wing premium.
161–170
#161
AdvancedProcess
25D call
The 25-delta call approximates a moderately OTM upside option.
Caveat:
Closest listed delta may not be exactly 25.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
The 25-delta call approximates a moderately OTM upside option. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “25D call” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Closest listed delta may not be exactly 25.
The 25-delta put approximates a moderately OTM downside option.
Caveat:
Sparse strikes make the estimate noisy.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
The 25-delta put approximates a moderately OTM downside option. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “25D put” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Sparse strikes make the estimate noisy.
Caveat:
Negative RR means put IV is richer than call IV.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
RR equals call 25D IV minus put 25D IV. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Risk reversal” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Negative RR means put IV is richer than call IV.
Positive RR means upside calls are priced richer than downside puts.
Caveat:
This can happen in squeeze-prone commodities.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
Positive RR means upside calls are priced richer than downside puts. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Positive RR” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: This can happen in squeeze-prone commodities.
Negative RR means downside puts are priced richer.
Caveat:
This is common when protection demand dominates.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
Negative RR means downside puts are priced richer. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Negative RR” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: This is common when protection demand dominates.
BF compares average wing IV to ATM IV to measure smile curvature.
Caveat:
BF can rise from both wings getting expensive.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
BF compares average wing IV to ATM IV to measure smile curvature. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Butterfly metric” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: BF can rise from both wings getting expensive.
Plotting RR and BF across expiries shows whether skew is front-loaded or persistent.
Caveat:
Back expiries may have poor 25D marks.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
Plotting RR and BF across expiries shows whether skew is front-loaded or persistent. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Skew term structure” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Back expiries may have poor 25D marks.
More negative RR means downside skew is steepening.
Caveat:
Could be real demand or bad put marks.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
More negative RR means downside skew is steepening. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Skew steepening” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Could be real demand or bad put marks.
RR moving toward zero means call and put wings are pricing more evenly.
Caveat:
Flattening can come from calls richening or puts cheapening.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
RR moving toward zero means call and put wings are pricing more evenly. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Skew flattening” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Flattening can come from calls richening or puts cheapening.
Use RR/BF to choose risk reversals, seagulls, collars, or wing spreads.
Caveat:
Execution quality matters because skew edges are often small.
When to use
You track directional skew and wing curvature across expiries.
How to read
Use RR/BF to choose risk reversals, seagulls, collars, or wing spreads. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
RR sign → BF curvature → term of skew → map to structure.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Skew trade mapping” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Execution quality matters because skew edges are often small.
Use per-option history to learn whether price, IV, and volume are moving together.
171–180
#171
IntermediateProcess
Last price series
The blue history line shows the option last price through time.
Caveat:
Last price can be stale between trades.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
The blue history line shows the option last price through time. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Last price series” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Last price can be stale between trades.
The green dashed line shows IV changes on the right axis.
Caveat:
IV can move because price, future, or time changed.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
The green dashed line shows IV changes on the right axis. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “IV history series” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: IV can move because price, future, or time changed.
Option price and IV rising together suggests demand beyond pure delta move.
Caveat:
Confirm the future move before calling it vol buying.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
Option price and IV rising together suggests demand beyond pure delta move. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Price up IV up” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Confirm the future move before calling it vol buying.
Option price rising while IV falls can happen when delta gains beat volatility crush.
Caveat:
Common after event risk passes.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
Option price rising while IV falls can happen when delta gains beat volatility crush. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Price up IV down” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Common after event risk passes.
History stores volume snapshots so you can see whether moves occurred with activity.
Caveat:
Volume resets by session and can jump mechanically.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
History stores volume snapshots so you can see whether moves occurred with activity. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Volume context” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Volume resets by session and can jump mechanically.
Clicking the future/ATM IV tile shows future price and ATM IV through time.
Caveat:
Contract-level history is only recorded when snapshots change.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
Clicking the future/ATM IV tile shows future price and ATM IV through time. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “ATM contract history” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Contract-level history is only recorded when snapshots change.
Use 24h for intraday flow and 30d/90d for regime context.
Caveat:
Long ranges are thinned for readability.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
Use 24h for intraday flow and 30d/90d for regime context. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Range selection” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Long ranges are thinned for readability.
Flat history can mean no trading, not stable fair value.
Caveat:
Market closed periods require different interpretation.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
Flat history can mean no trading, not stable fair value. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Stale period detection” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Market closed periods require different interpretation.
Use history to study how IV behaved before and after big futures moves.
Caveat:
Past behavior is not a rule.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
Use history to study how IV behaved before and after big futures moves. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Vol event replay” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Past behavior is not a rule.
After a trade, compare your entry IV with later IV to separate direction edge from vol edge.
Caveat:
Good direction can hide bad volatility entry.
When to use
You verify whether price, IV, and volume moved together after a decision.
How to read
After a trade, compare your entry IV with later IV to separate direction edge from vol edge. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Pick contract/strike → range → price vs IV co-move → journal.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Exit review” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Good direction can hide bad volatility entry.
Convert chart observations into structures with defined reasons and invalidation points.
181–190
#181
IntermediateProcess
Expected move fade
If expected move is high versus your realized-vol view, consider defined-risk premium sales.
Caveat:
High IV can be justified by upcoming risk.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
If expected move is high versus your realized-vol view, consider defined-risk premium sales. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Expected move fade” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: High IV can be justified by upcoming risk.
If expected move is low versus your event or breakout view, consider debit spreads or straddles.
Caveat:
Cheap options can still expire worthless.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
If expected move is low versus your event or breakout view, consider debit spreads or straddles. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Expected move buy” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Cheap options can still expire worthless.
If price is near max pain into expiry, short premium may look attractive.
Caveat:
Pin trades fail hard on breakout days.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
If price is near max pain into expiry, short premium may look attractive. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Max pain pin trade” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Pin trades fail hard on breakout days.
A break through a large wall with volume can support momentum structures.
Caveat:
Walls are not guaranteed barriers.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
A break through a large wall with volume can support momentum structures. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Wall breakout trade” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Walls are not guaranteed barriers.
Avoid oversized short gamma near the gamma peak close to expiry.
Caveat:
Small futures moves can force fast adjustments.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
Avoid oversized short gamma near the gamma peak close to expiry. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Gamma peak caution” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Small futures moves can force fast adjustments.
If downside skew is rich and thesis is stable, put spreads may be preferable to naked puts.
Caveat:
Crash tails remain real.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
If downside skew is rich and thesis is stable, put spreads may be preferable to naked puts. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Skew-rich put sale” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Crash tails remain real.
If put skew is unusually flat, protective put spreads may be relatively attractive.
Caveat:
Flat skew can reflect low perceived risk for a reason.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
If put skew is unusually flat, protective put spreads may be relatively attractive. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Skew-cheap hedge” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Flat skew can reflect low perceived risk for a reason.
If call wing is rich, covered calls or call spreads can monetize upside demand.
Caveat:
You give up convex upside.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
If call wing is rich, covered calls or call spreads can monetize upside demand. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Call-rich overwrite” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: You give up convex upside.
If front IV is rich versus back IV, calendars and diagonals need careful event alignment.
Caveat:
Wrong strike location can lose despite correct vol view.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
If front IV is rich versus back IV, calendars and diagonals need careful event alignment. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Term-structure calendar” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Wrong strike location can lose despite correct vol view.
Prefer strikes with real OI, current volume, and sane bid/ask for live execution.
Caveat:
The best theoretical strike is useless if untradable.
When to use
Chart story is clear; you need a structure with invalidation.
How to read
Prefer strikes with real OI, current volume, and sane bid/ask for live execution. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Chart agreement → structure → size by stress → invalidation.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “OI liquidity routing” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: The best theoretical strike is useless if untradable.
Avoid the common mistakes that make professional-looking option dashboards dangerous.
191–200
#191
IntermediateProcess
Last-trade IV caution
IV solved from last price can be stale when the option has not traded recently.
Caveat:
Bid/ask IV would be cleaner but needs more modeling.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
IV solved from last price can be stale when the option has not traded recently. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Last-trade IV caution” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Bid/ask IV would be cleaner but needs more modeling.
Ignore strikes where bid/ask is extremely wide or one side is missing.
Caveat:
Bad quotes create fake chart signals.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
Ignore strikes where bid/ask is extremely wide or one side is missing. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Wide market filter” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Bad quotes create fake chart signals.
Negative extrinsic usually means stale last price or quote mismatch.
Caveat:
Do not treat it as free arbitrage without executable prices.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
Negative extrinsic usually means stale last price or quote mismatch. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Negative extrinsic warning” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Do not treat it as free arbitrage without executable prices.
Nearest 25D estimates are rough when strike spacing is wide.
Caveat:
Use interpolation only if the surface is smooth.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
Nearest 25D estimates are rough when strike spacing is wide. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Coarse strike risk” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Use interpolation only if the surface is smooth.
Open interest does not say whether customers are long or short.
Caveat:
Dealer gamma sign cannot be known from OI alone.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
Open interest does not say whether customers are long or short. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “OI sign problem” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Dealer gamma sign cannot be known from OI alone.
High volume at two strikes may be one spread, not two independent bets.
Caveat:
Read clusters together.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
High volume at two strikes may be one spread, not two independent bets. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Spread-leg distortion” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Read clusters together.
If expiry dates are estimated, time-to-expiry and Greeks can be slightly off.
Caveat:
Holiday handling matters near expiry.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
If expiry dates are estimated, time-to-expiry and Greeks can be slightly off. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Expiry estimation” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Holiday handling matters near expiry.
SHFE night/day sessions and global gold hours affect freshness and volatility.
Caveat:
Stale data during closed periods should not be compared to live flow.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
SHFE night/day sessions and global gold hours affect freshness and volatility. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Commodity session effects” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Stale data during closed periods should not be compared to live flow.
Trust an idea more when smile, term, OI, volume, and history tell a coherent story.
Caveat:
Correlation between charts can also repeat the same data error.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
Trust an idea more when smile, term, OI, volume, and history tell a coherent story. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Cross-chart consistency” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Correlation between charts can also repeat the same data error.
Use these charts to improve selection and sizing, not to remove stop-loss or risk limits.
Caveat:
Professional tools do not eliminate market risk.
When to use
Always—before trusting any professional-looking tile or chart.
How to read
Use these charts to improve selection and sizing, not to remove stop-loss or risk limits. On the chain, compare this idea against ATM IV, expected move, and at least one of smile/term/OI.
Workflow
Wide market filter → last-trade IV caution → multi-chart confirm.
Example (AU/AG context)
On AU chain: open the related chart, note ATM IV and expected move, then apply “Position sizing discipline” while cross-checking OI walls and term structure. Example read: if AU2608 ATM IV is elevated vs back months, label the front as event/stress premium before trading wings.
Invalidation
Discard the read if marks are stale, bid/ask is absurd, OI has not updated, or other tiles disagree. Caveat to respect: Professional tools do not eliminate market risk.
Global dollar gold shocks transmit into AU futures, but basis, rates, and session timing create slippage in the story.
Risk:
Assuming 1:1 instantaneous mapping from COMEX narrative to SHFE option IV.
When to use
After major USD gold spikes during off-hours.
Structure
Check future gap, then ATM IV change, then smile wings.
Greeks / risk shape
Gap opens reprice delta first; IV second.
Example (AU/AG context)
A London/NY spike may show up as a futures gap at next SHFE open with IV already adjusted—chasing straddles late is different from owning them into the gap.
Invalidation
If the future has not updated, do not mark yourself to a foreign print.